With President Bush's approval ratings in the dumps and the Republicans in Congress in serious danger of losing their majority - their could be a big change of direction in the US domestic and international policy post November mid-term elections. If the Republicans end up ceding their majority both in the House and the Senate, then there is a very real chance that the vindictive Democrats, who have been afraid to take any stance on major issues facing the US will seize on the opportunity and make the Bush administration go through a series of politically motivated hearings on the Hill - some of them deserved and some of them serving the twin demons of partisanship and demagoguery, which will cripple this administration for whatever its worth for its remaining two years.
Karl Rove wanted to create a long-term Republican majority but it seems to me that through his political chicanery and the ineptitude of this administration, the conservatives have ended up getting a black eye instead and their grand plans have evaporated in a flurry of scandals. Now there is a very real prospect of a Democartic President and a Democratic Congress looming in front of us which could be bad news on many issues.
It is not that I am a big fan of the Republican party, or that I feel that the Republicans are any less or more corrupt than their Democrat counterparts. Either party, when in power, tries to govern, at least to some extent on its founding principles and the basic conservative principles simply make more sense compared to the liberal ones. Of course, there are always aberrations like Bill Clinton who chalked out his own middle way but then exceptions only prove the rule. I am also not implying that I am a fan of this administration, far from it. I am deeply disgusted by their politcal tactics, their handling of various issues, their under-the-table attempts to dilute environmental protections. I am also not a blind supporter of the conservative principles, specially their stance on scientific enquiry. But broadly speaking, let me elaborate on why the looming arrival of liberals is bad news.
It will be bad news for developing nations around the world because for all their talk of compassion and doing more for the third world countries, the Democrats really only believe in handing out aid to those countries. The only real way in which those countries can make progress is through developing bilateral trade with the West. But with leading Western countries insisting on continuing massive local subsidies and high import tariffs, this issue has stagnated. President Bush tried eliminating some of those subsidies but could not get rid of all. Bono can sing and dance for all he wants, unless and until the West lets go of its shackles on the products that are the mainstay of developing countries, there cannot be a meaningful progress on elimination wretched poverty in parts of the world and the liberals with their panderings to the subsidies lobbies, cannot provide any meaningful leadership on this issue.
It will be bad news for the war on terrorism. For all their talk of winning the hearts of the Muslims and Muslim countries, the Democrats did not exactly send a Valentine to the Arab world when they indulged in political rhetoric and bombast over the Dubai ports deal. You can expect more of the same protectionism from them when they are in power.
The same strain of protectionism will also make globalization suffer. Countries like India, as in the last elections, will again face lots of political rhetoric during the campaign about outsourcing, but with Democrats in power, this time around that rhetoric might very well turn into reality. There could be measures to make outsourcing of business more difficult, to make immigration into the US an even more labyrinth process and to reduce the number of visas available to foreign workers. Remember, that these are the people who talk hyperbolically about making the world a better place and yet, when it comes to treaties like NAFTA and CAFTA, they start pandering to their trade union base.
So unless Republicans can turn something around in the next few months for the mid-terms and then for the Presidential elections, it seems like a free fall for them at the moment. They came in power riding on the coattails of some very sound conservative principles but it is disheartening that they could not hold onto them.